#PELTIER TECH CHARTS FOR EXCEL 3.0 SERIES#
Now that we have this model setup, so I copied that data and Paste Special as Values, paste Special Formats, and then said – Alright, if the Indians win tonight, so I'm basically going to change this to 100 which means that every single game in Game 4 is a winner.Īnd then we'll come out here and you'll see that there's now an 85% chance of the Indians winning the World Series and only a 15% chance of the Cubs winning the World Series. The Cleveland's going to win the series and tonight Saturday, October 29th, the Cleveland ace pitcher, Corey Kluber, is going to be our starting pitcher, on 3 days rest.Īnd how important is it for the Indians to win tonight.Īlright, well there's a really easy way to find this out. So right now, sure enough, there's about a 63% chance after running in a model 150,000 times. So here's the result, 150,000 runs of the World Series, so: Cleveland in 5, Cleveland in 6, Cleveland in 7, Chicago in 6 and Chicago in 7. We're going to go to Data, What-if Analysis, Data Table and all we do is specify Column Input Cell of any blank cell, and because we have ran back there, it will do those 10,000 calculations now 15 times. Let's use that great trick that I learned from Professor Simon Banega where we create a data table from a blank cell, usually the top-left corner cell of a data table in Excel is the formula, but in this case, I'm going to leave that blank. Now, this is a result of 10,000 runs- 10,000 runs and you can see here, the 538 is saying a 63% chance of winning the World Series and right here in 10,000 runs, I have a 64% chance.įirst off, Nate's model is far more superior than my simple little thing that threw together here in Excel.īecause in his model, once the winner of this game is known, he actually changes the percentages for the remaining items, alright.Īnd mine doesn't do that, but still order of magnitude, close. In 5 games, 1675, 6 games 2478, 7 games 2275, alright.Īnd then, some more statistics out here, whether Cleveland wins in 5, 6 or 7 or Chicago wins in 6 or 7. These statistics are just adding up the number of times that the Indians win, divided by 10,000 because there's 10,000 rows, alright? So that whole big thing - Every row here is a different possible outcome and you see, there are a lot of possibilities where Cleveland wins because even though it's more likely the Cubs will win the next game, there's still 49 times out of a hundred that the Indians do win the game.Īnd, there's enough where the Indians win 2 to win the series.Īlright, so out here on the right-hand side, I have some statistics. So I'm going to model this thing: 10,000 times, 10,000 times right there. Over here in IF statement, if the Indians win more than 1 game, in other words that they win 2 of the remaining 4 games, they've won the series.Īnd then here, let's go on where they actually, a very inefficient formula to figure out whether they won in 6 games or 7 games.Ĭalculate if the Cubs win and how many games they can win.Īnd of course, the Cubs can't win in 5 now, they have to win in either 6 or 7, alright. So every time I calculate here - See we have a different outcome to this series. If that number is less than or equal to the 49%, then I put a 1 for the Indians winning. Put them up here, those are the four games.Īnd then a simple, simple little formula here that says: =RAN, RAN gives us a random number between 0 and 1. I took the 49, the 34, the 49 and the 54%. These are rounded off, I'm sure that Nate has this out far greater percentages. So right now, Nate is saying the Indians’ chance of winning the World Series is 63%, and the Cubs’ chance of winning the World Series is 37%.īut these numbers fluctuate wildly after every game and so using the Elo statistic and really advanced modeling, Nate predicts the outcome of each of the games.Īnd look at this, the Indians aren't predicted to win.įinally, in Game 7 they're going to predict a win.įor Nate, how could it be that with your calling 3 games against the Indians, they're going to win?Īlright, and so I needed to wrap my head around this and of course, to wrap my head around this. They're fighting against the Chicago Cubs who have had an even longer drought, either team winning the World Series will be a great story.Īnd I spend a lot of time at my favorite website, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.Ī lot of it for election coverage but Nate is a baseball guy first, and he has these awesome statistics and I live and breathe on these statistics. If you follow baseball, American baseball, which means that in my entire lifetime, when I seen the Indians in the World Series two times before this year, three times this year, and the Indians are ahead 2 to 1 in a best of 7 series. Learn Excel from MrExcel Podcast, Episode 2057: Understanding 538 Well, I'm a Cleveland Indians fan.
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